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University College London Study Shows Direct-to-Consumer DNA Tests Not Reliable in Assessing Disease Risk

Regulatory agencies in UK and US have yet to address dangers inherent in customer misunderstanding of DTC medical laboratory genetic test results

Direct-to-consumer (DTC) medical laboratory genetic tests are gaining popularity across the globe. But recent research out of the United Kingdom questions the reliability of these tests. The study, according to The Guardian, found that “Over the counter genetic tests in the UK that assess the risk of cancer or heart problems fail to identify 89% of those in danger of getting killer diseases.”

Researchers at University College London (UCL) examined 926 polygenic scores for risk of 310 different diseases from details retrieved from the Polygenic Score (PGS) Catalog. This catalog is an open-access database of published polygenic scores.

According the PGS website, “each PGS in the catalog is consistently annotated with relevant metadata; including scoring files (variants, effect alleles/weights), annotations of how the PGS was developed and applied, and evaluations of their predictive performance.”

However, the researchers told The Guardian, “Polygenic risk scores performed poorly in population screening, individual risk prediction, and population risk stratification. Strong claims about the effect of polygenic risk scores on healthcare seem to be disproportionate to their performance.”

The UCL researchers published their findings in the journal BMJ Medicine titled, “Performance of Polygenic Risk Scores in Screening, Prediction, and Risk Stratification: Secondary Analysis of Data in the Polygenic Source Catalog.”

“Strong claims have been made about the potential of polygenic risk scores in medicine, but our study shows that this is not justified,” Aroon Hingorani, PhD (above), Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at UCL and lead author of the study, told The Guardian. “We found that, when held to the same standards as employed for other tests in medicine, polygenic risk scores performed poorly for prediction and screening across a range of common diseases.” Consumer misunderstanding of DTC medical laboratory genetic tests is a real danger. (Photo copyright: University College London.)

Polygenic Scores Not Beneficial to Cancer Screening

To complete their study, the UCL researchers compared PGS genetic risk data to conventional clinical laboratory testing methods and discovered some troubling results. They include:

  • On average, only 11% of individuals who developed a disease had been identified by the tests.
  • A 5% false positive rate where people were informed that they would get a disease within 10 years but did not.
  • PGS only identified 10% of people who later developed breast cancer.
  • PGS only identified 12% of individuals who later developed coronary artery disease.

The researchers state in their BMJ Medicine paper that polygenic risk scores are not the same as testing for certain gene mutations, which could be critical in screening for some cancers. They also wrote that discovering genetic variants associated with the risk for disease is still crucial for drug development.

“It has been suggested that polygenic risk scores could be introduced early on to help prevent breast cancer and heart disease but, in the examples we looked at, we found that the scores contributed little, if any, health benefit while adding cost and complexity,” research physician and epidemiologist Sir Nicholas Wald, FRS, FRCP, FMedSci, Professor of Preventive Medicine at UCL Institute of Health Informatics and co-author of the study, told the Jersey Evening Post

“Our results build on evidence that indicates that polygenic risk scores do not have a role in public health screening programs,” Wald added.

“This research study rightly highlights that for many health conditions genetic risk scores alone may have limited usefulness, because other factors such as deprivation, lifestyles, and environment are also important,” clinical epidemiologist Raghib Ali, MD, CEO, Chief Investigator and Chief Medical Officer, Our Future Health UK, told The Guardian

Our Future Health is a collaboration between public, non-profit, and private sectors to create the UK’s largest health research program. The researchers in this endeavor intend to recruit over five million volunteers and use polygenic risk scores to develop innovative ways to prevent, detect, and treat disease. This program is funded by the UK’s National Health System (NHS).

“[Our] research program will be developing integrated risk scores that will take in all the important risk factors,” Ali explained. “We hope these integrated risk scores can identify people more likely to develop diseases, but this is a relatively new area of science and there are still unanswered questions around it.”

Danger of Misunderstanding DTC Genetic Tests

Here in the US, there have been news stories in recent years about the unreliability of certain genetic tests. Dark Daily covered these stories in previous ebriefs. News stories about the unreliability of genetic tests, particularly those marketed directly to consumers, reveal the problems that existing regulatory schemes have yet to address.

In “Consumer Reports Identifies ‘Potential Pitfalls’ of Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Tests,” we covered CR’s findings that though clinical laboratory and pathology professionals understand the difference between a doctor-ordered genetic health risk (GHR) test and a direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic test, the typical genetic test customer may not. And that, misunderstanding the results of a DTC at-home genetic test can lead to confusion, loss of privacy, and potential harm.

Scientific American also covered the dangers of DTC testing in “The Problem with Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Tests,” in which the author notes that “despite caveats in ads and on packages, users can fail to understand their limitations,” and that “consumer-grade products are easily misconstrued as appropriate medical tests and create false reassurances in patients who could be at legitimate risk.”

Most clinical laboratory managers and pathologists are probably not surprised that the research performed at UCL shows that there are still issues surrounding genetic tests, particularly those marketed directly to consumers. While direct-to-consumer DNA tests can have some benefits, at this time, they are not always the best option for individuals seeking information about their personal risk for hereditary diseases.

—JP Schlingman

Related Information:

Over the Counter Genetic Tests in UK ‘Fail to Identify 89%’ of Those at Serious Risk

Performance of Polygenic Risk Scores in Screening, Prediction, and Risk Stratification: Secondary Analysis of Data in the Polygenic Score Catalog

3 Things to Know about At-home DNA Testing Kits

What Can At-home Genetic Tests Tell Me about My Health?

What are the Benefits and Risks of Direct-to-consumer Genetic Testing?

Genetic Risk Scores ‘Do Not Have a Place in Public Health Screening’

Consumer Reports Identifies ‘Potential Pitfalls’ of Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Tests

The Problem with Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Tests

Asian Company Launches World’s First Diagnostic Test for Microbiome of the Mouth

Collected data could give healthcare providers and clinical laboratories a practical view of individuals’ oral microbiota and lead to new diagnostic assays

When people hear about microbiome research, they usually think of the study of gut bacteria which Dark Daily has covered extensively. However, this type of research is now expanding to include more microbiomes within the human body, including the oral microbiome—the microbiota living in the human mouth. 

One example is coming from Genefitletics, a biotech company based in New Delhi, India. It recently launched ORAHYG, the first and only (they claim) at-home oral microbiome functional activity test available in Asia. The company is targeting the direct-to-consumer (DTC) testing market.

According to the Genefitletics website, the ORAHYG test can decode the root causes of:

The test can also aid in the early detection development of:

“Using oral microbial gene expression sequencing technology and its [machine learning] model, [Genefitletics] recently debuted its oral microbiome gene expression solution, which bridges the gap between dentistry and systemic inflammation,” ETHealthworld reported.

“The molecular insights from this test would give an unprecedented view of functions of the oral microbiome, their interaction with gut microbiome and impact on metabolic, cardiovascular, cognitive, skin, and autoimmune health,” BioSpectrum noted.

Sushant Kumar

“Microbes, the planet Earth’s original inhabitants, have coevolved with humanity, carry out vital biological tasks inside the body, and fundamentally alter how we think about nutrition, medicine, cleanliness, and the environment,” Sushant Kumar (above), founder and CEO of Genefitletics, told the Economic Times. “This has sparked additional research over the past few years into the impact of the trillions of microorganisms that inhabit the human body on our health and diverted tons of funding into the microbiome field.” Clinical laboratories may eventually see an interest and demand for testing of the oral microbiome. (Photo copyright: ETHealthworld.)


Imbalanced Oral Microbiome Can Trigger Disease

The term microbiome refers to the tiny microorganisms that reside on and inside our bodies. A high colonization of these microorganisms—including bacteria, fungi, yeast, viruses, and protozoa—live in our mouths.

“Mouth is the second largest and second most diverse colonized site for microbiome with 770 species comprising 100 billion microbes residing there,” said Sushant Kumar, founder and CEO of Genefitletics, BioSpectrum reported. “Each place inside the mouth right from tongue, throat, saliva, and upper surface of mouth have a distinctive and unique microbiome ecosystem. An imbalanced oral microbiome is said to trigger onset and progression of type 2 diabetes, arthritis, heart diseases, and even dementia.”

The direct-to-consumer ORAHYG test uses a saliva sample taken either by a healthcare professional or an individual at home. That sample is then sequenced through Genefitletics’ gene sequencing platform and the resulting biological data set added to an informatics algorithm.

Genefitletics’ machine-learning platform next converts that information into a pre-symptomatic molecular signature that can predict whether an individual will develop a certain disease. Genefitletics then provides that person with therapeutic and nutritional solutions that can suppress the molecules that are causing the disease. 

“The current industrial healthcare system is really a symptom care [system] and adopts a pharmaceutical approach to just make the symptoms more bearable,” Kumar told the Economic Times. “The system cannot decode the root cause to determine what makes people develop diseases.”

Helping People Better Understand their Health

Founded in 2019, Genefitletics was created to pioneer breakthrough discoveries in microbial science to promote better health and increase longevity in humans. The company hopes to unravel the potential of the oral microbiome to help people fend off illness and gain insight into their health. 

“Microorganisms … perform critical biological functions inside the body and transform our approach towards nutrition, medicine, hygiene and environment,” Kumar told CNBC. “It is important to understand that an individual does not develop a chronic disease overnight.

“It starts with chronic inflammation which triggers pro-inflammatory molecular indications. Unfortunately, these molecular signatures are completely invisible and cannot be measured using traditional clinical grade tests or diagnostic investigations,” he added. “These molecular signatures occur due to alteration in gene expression of gut, oral, or vaginal microbiome and/or human genome. We have developed algorithms that help us in understanding these alterations way before the clinical symptoms kick in.” 

Genefitletics plans to utilize individuals’ collected oral microbiome data to determine their specific nutritional shortcomings, and to develop personalized supplements to help people avoid disease.

The company also produces DTC kits that analyze gut and vaginal microbiomes as well as a test that is used to evaluate an infant’s microbiome.

“The startup wants to develop comparable models to forecast conditions like autism, PCOS [polycystic ovarian syndrome], IBD [Inflammatory bowel disease], Parkinson’s, chronic renal [kidney] disease, anxiety, depression, and obesity,” the Economic Times reported.

Time will tell whether the oral microbiome tests offered by this company prove to be clinically useful. Certainly Genefitletics hopes its ORAHYG test can eventually provide healthcare providers—including clinical laboratory professionals—with a useful view of the oral microbiome. The collected data might also help individuals become aware of pre-symptomatic conditions that make it possible for them to seek confirmation of the disease and early treatment by medical professionals.   

—JP Schlingman

Related Information:

Genefitletics Brings Asia’s First Oral Microbiome Test ORAHYG

Let’s Focus on the Role of Microbiomes in Systemic Inflammation and Disease Development: Sushant Kumar, Genefitletics

Genefitletics Can Now Predict and Detect Chronic Diseases and Cancer

Genefitletics Can Now Predict and Detect Chronic Diseases and Cancer

Healthtech Startup Genefitletics Raises Undisclosed Amount in Pre-seed Funding

Understanding Oral Microbiome Testing: What You Need to Know

UK Researchers Believe Somatic Mutations Play Vital Role in Aging, Longevity, and Death

Understanding why some mutations impair normal bodily functions and contribute to cancer may lead to new clinical laboratory diagnostics

New insight into the human genome may help explain the ageing process and provide clues to improving human longevity that can be useful to clinical laboratories and researchers developing cancer diagnostics. A recent study conducted at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Cambridge, United Kingdom, suggests that the speed of DNA errors in genetic mutations may play a critical role in the lifespan and survival of a species.  

To perform their research, the scientists analyzed genomes from the intestines of 16 mammalian species looking for genetic changes. Known as somatic mutations, these mutations are a natural process that occur in all cells during the life of an organism and are typically harmless. However, some somatic mutations can impair the normal function of a cell and even play a role in causing cancer.

The researchers published their findings in the journal Nature, titled, “Somatic Mutation Rates Scale with Lifespan Across Mammals.”

 Inigo Martincorena, PhD

“Aging is a complex process, the result of multiple forms of molecular damage in our cells and tissues. Somatic mutations have been speculated to contribute to ageing since the 1950s, but studying them had remained difficult,” said Inigo Martincorena, PhD (above), Group Leader, Sanger Institute and one of the authors of the study. Greater understanding of the role DNA mutations play in cancer could lead to new clinical laboratory tools and diagnostics. (Photo copyright: Wellcome Sanger Institute.)

Lifespans versus Body Mass

The mammalian subjects examined in the study incorporated a wide range of lifespans and body masses and included humans, giraffes, tigers, mice, and the highly cancer-resistant naked mole-rat. The average number of somatic mutations at the end of a lifespan was around 3,200 for all the species studied, despite vast differences in age and body mass. It appears that species with longer lifespans can slow down their rate of genetic mutations.

The average lifespan of the humans used for the study was 83.6 years and they had a somatic mutation rate of 47 per year. Mice examined for the research endured 796 of the mutations annually and only lived for 3.7 years.

Species with similar amounts of the mutations had comparable lifespans. For example, the small, naked mole-rats analyzed experienced 93 mutations per year and lived to be 25 years of age. On the other hand, much larger giraffes encountered 99 mutations each year and had a lifespan of 24 years. 

“With the recent advances in DNA sequencing technologies, we can finally investigate the roles that somatic mutations play in ageing and in multiple diseases,” said Inigo Martincorena, PhD, Group Leader, Sanger Institute, one of the authors of the study in a press release. He added, “That this diverse range of mammals end their lives with a similar number of mutations in their cells is an exciting and intriguing discovery.”

The scientists analyzed the patterns of the mutations and found that the somatic mutations accumulated linearly over time. They also discovered that the mutations were caused by similar mechanisms and the number acquired were relatively similar across all the species, despite a difference in diet and life histories. For example, a giraffe is typically 40,000 times larger than a mouse, but both species accumulate a similar number of somatic mutations during their lifetimes.

“The fact that differences in somatic mutation rate seem to be explained by differences in lifespan, rather than body size, suggests that although adjusting the mutation rate sounds like an elegant way of controlling the incidence of cancer across species, evolution has not actually chosen this path,” said Adrian Baez-Ortega, PhD, postdoctoral researcher at the Sanger Institute and one of the paper’s authors, in the press release.

“It is quite possible that every time a species evolves a larger size than its ancestors—as in giraffes, elephants, and whales—evolution might come up with a different solution to this problem. We will need to study these species in greater detail to find out,” he speculated.

Why Some Species Live Longer than Others

The researchers also found that the rate of somatic mutations decreased as the lifespan of each species increased which suggests the mutations have a likely role in ageing. It appears that humans and animals perish after accumulating a similar number of these genetic mutations which implies that the speed of the mutations is vital in ascertaining lifespan and could explain why some species live substantially longer than others.

“To find a similar pattern of genetic changes in animals as different from one another as a mouse and a tiger was surprising. But the most exciting aspect of the study has to be finding that lifespan is inversely proportional to the somatic mutation rate,” said Alex Cagan, PhD, Postdoctoral Fellow at the Sanger Institute and one of the authors of the study in the press release.

“This suggests that somatic mutations may play a role in ageing, although alternative explanations may be possible. Over the next few years, it will be fascinating to extend these studies into even more diverse species, such as insects or plants,” he noted.

Benefit of Understanding Ageing and Death

The scientists believe this study may provide insight to understanding the ageing process and the inevitability and timing of death. They surmise that ageing is likely to be caused by the aggregation of multiple types of damage to the cells and tissues suffered throughout a lifetime, including somatic mutations.

Some companies that offer genetic tests claim their products can predict longevity, despite the lack of widely accepted evidence that such tests are accurate within an acceptable range. Further research is needed to confirm that the findings of the Wellcome Sanger Institute study are relevant to understand the ageing process.

If the results are validated, though, it is probable that new direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests will be developed, which could be a new revenue source for clinical laboratories. 

JP Schlingman

Related Information:

Mystery of Why Humans Die Around 80 May Finally Be Solved

Mutations Across Animal Kingdom Shed New Light on Ageing

Somatic Mutation Rates Scale with Lifespan Across Mammals

‘Femtech’ Diagnostic Start-up Firms Want to Provide Women with At-Home Tests for Health Conditions That Currently Require Tests Done by Clinical Laboratories

Several young companies hope to expand the direct-to-consumer test market by introducing new diagnostic tests to serve the women’s health market

Providing women with at-home lab test kits is the goal of a growing class of start-up companies that are bringing to market consumer test kits for a range of health conditions common to women. These companies believe they can shift a substantial volume of such testing away from the nation’s medical laboratories.

Moreover, diagnostic startups that develop at-home direct-to-consumer (DTC) clinical laboratory genetic tests have been hot commodities among venture capitalists and other healthcare investors willing to put tens of millions of dollars into these new firms. The New York Times observed that, until recently, women’s healthcare needs have rarely been the focus of new diagnostic testing companies, but that the situation may be changing.

Femtech” (short for female technology) products and services that address the health and wellness needs of women is the new buzz word in healthcare. It describes female-focused diagnostic startups aiming at vaginal health and other medical issues that go beyond reproductive health concerns.

This, however, is a dual-edged sword for clinical laboratory leaders. Growth in this segment could lead to new diagnostics tests that boost a medical lab’s bottom line or, conversely, it could reduce revenue as patients self-diagnose urinary tract infections (UTIs), yeast infections, and other conditions through at-home DTC testing.

Michelle Tempest, MD

“The market potential is huge,” Michelle Tempest, MD (above), a partner at the London-based healthcare consulting firm Candesic, told The New York Times. “There’s definitely an increasing appetite for anything in the world which is technology and a realization that female consumer power has arrived—and that it’s arrived in healthcare.” Tempest maintains the women’s health marketplace is ripe for growth, which could mean a boon for clinical laboratory testing and diagnostics designed specifically for women. (Photo copyright: Candesic.)

Vaginal Microbiome At-home Clinical Laboratory Tests in High Demand

One area in particular drawing the attention of several female-led startups is vaginal health. According to an article in Vogue, test developers Juno Bio and Evvy are leading the way with at-home vaginal microbiome tests that let users “know what’s up down there.”

New York City-based Evvy ($129 for a single test or $99 each for four tests per year) uses metagenomic sequencing to identify the bacteria and fungi present in the vaginal microbiome. This information helps customers to understand their levels of protective and disruptive bacteria, which can be associated with everything from reoccurring infections and transmission of sexually transmitted diseases to infertility.

London-based Juno Bio ($149 per test) does not disclose its testing method. It does, however, provide users with a “full vaginal microbiome profile.” The profile is accessed online within a “few days” of returning the vaginal swab sample to the company’s clinical laboratory.

Both companies note that their tests are intended to be used for wellness purposes and are not meant to diagnose or treat disease or substitute for a physician’s consultation.

Gynecologist Oluwatosin Goje, MD, MSCR, FACOG, a reproductive infectious disease specialist at Cleveland Clinic, believes the availability of at-home vaginal microbiome testing will provide valuable information to both women and their doctors.

“It’s a powerful tool because it enables us to look at the entire microbial community through metagenomics and decipher how the overall composition might be affecting symptoms and infections, as well as determine the best treatment pathway,” Goje, an Evvy Medical Advisor, told Vogue. “Understanding the complete vaginal microbiome allows us to be good antibiotic stewards and only administer antibiotics when needed. Patients can also retest remotely to understand how antibiotics and other treatments impacted their vaginal microbiome.”

Evvy, an at-home vaginal microbiome test

Evvy, which offers women an at-home vaginal microbiome test (above) that can provide insights into chronic vaginal infections and proclivity to contract sexually transmitted diseases and other women’s health issues, is one of several women-led diagnostic start-ups focused on women’s health. (Photo copyright: Evvy.)

Removing the Discomfort of Shopping for Women’s Health Products

Jamie Norwood and Cynthia Plotch, co-founders of Stix, a supplier of women’s health products and education, launched their company with a product line of at-home pregnancy and ovulation tests. They have since expanded their offerings to include urinary tract infection (UTI) and yeast infection testing and treatments.

“You can test, relieve, treat, and help prevent future infections—all from the comfort of your own home,” Norwood, told Vogue. She emphasized that this is the kind of experience healthcare consumers are demanding in today’s ever-growing direct-to-consumer clinical laboratory testing landscape. “Agonizing over confusing over-the-counter products in the drugstore aisles, or bending over backwards to pick up a prescription at the pharmacy, just isn’t cutting it for Millennial and Gen Z consumers.”

According to WebMD, yeast infections are a chronic problem for many women. While 75% of women will get at least one yeast infection in their lifetime, up to 8% get more than four a year. In addition, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) points out that bacterial vaginosis is the most common vaginal condition in females ages 15-44.

Lola Priego, is CEO and founder of blood test company Base, which sells at-home saliva and finger-prick blood tests to monitor hormone levels, vitamin levels, neurotransmitters, and blood cell markers to improve everything from sleep and diet to sex drive. She predicts direct-to-consumer testing will become as common as fitness watches.

“Eventually, at-home lab testing will be another readily-used tool, similar to your health-tracking wearables, that helps us optimize for a well-rounded healthy lifestyle in a more individualized way,” Priego told Vogue.

Femtech a ‘Significantly Underdeveloped’ Market

In its latest Analyst Note, financial data firm PitchBook maintained that the market for female health products is poised for growth. TechCrunch, which reviewed PitchBook’s analysis of female-focused health products, reported that Femtech remains a “significantly underdeveloped” slice of health-tech spending.

While women spend an estimated $500 billion annually on medical expenses, only 4% of research and development money is targeted at women’s health, PitchBook noted. In its analysis, Pitchbook predicted the global market for female-focused health products will reach $3 billion by the end of 2030. By comparison, that segment of the healthcare market totaled $820.6 million last year.

“While we still view Femtech as a niche industry, we believe secular drivers could help propel new growth opportunities in the space,” PitchBook analysts wrote. “These include the increasing representation of women in the venture-backed technology community, rising awareness and acceptance of women’s health issues, and the growing prevalence of infectious diseases among women in some countries in Africa and Asia.

“Furthermore, while the majority of Femtech products have traditionally focused on reproductive health, we believe new approaches to women’s health research will help open the door to new products and services,” they noted.

Clinical laboratory leaders will be wise to carefully watch the growth of at-home DTC tests and products targeted at female healthcare consumers since fewer trips to physicians’ offices may mean fewer test orders for local labs.

At the same time, the opportunity exists for innovative pathologists and lab managers to develop digital services that allow consumers who are self-testing to store their home-test results in the lab’s app. They can then receive relevant insights from clinical pathologists to help them fully understand the implications of the test results.

—Andrea Downing Peck

Related Information:

Vaginal Health Is Finally at the Forefront: These Are the Startups Destigmatizing UTIs and Yeast Infections

Is ‘Femtech’ the Next Big Thing in Healthcare?

Backed by $5M Led by General Catalyst, Evvy Launches a Vaginal Microbiome Test to Support Women’s Health Research

Stanford Graduates Develop At-Home Vaginal Microbiome Test for Women with Reoccurring Infections and Even Infertility

Femtech VC Space Poised for Growth

Femtech Poised for Growth Beyond Fertility

Pitchbook Analyst Note: Femtech Expected to Break New Grounds

How Three Startups Are Furthering At-Home Healthcare

Have Low-cost Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Tests Changed Census Results in America?

Citizens claiming racial diversity increased by 276% in the 2020 census, leading experts to wonder if racial diversity is increasing or if people are simply electing to identify as such and how this trend will affect healthcare

Once again, we see another unexpected consequence to expanded DNA testing done by consumers for their own interests and needs. As NPR recently reported in “The Census Has Revealed a More Multiracial US. One Reason? Cheaper DNA Tests,” the growing trend of ordering low-cost direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing to identify cultural heritage (where a family came from) and genealogy (to connect with extant family members) has educated healthcare consumers more about their cultural roots.

Such knowledge, NPR speculates, is allowing people to complete their census survey with more accurate “heritage” classifications.

How does this affect clinical laboratories? As Dark Daily covered in “Popularity of Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Tests Still Growing, Regardless of Concerns from Provider and Privacy Organizations,” popularity of at-home testing—including DNA testing—coupled with demand for increasingly personalized medicine (PM) in healthcare, will likely change the types of test orders medical laboratories receive from physicians.

What Did the 2020 Census Show?

The last US census showed an interesting change compared to previous census surveys. More Americans identified themselves as racially diverse than in previous censuses. Scientists in multiple specialty areas—including demographics, sociology, genetics, and more—are asking why.

According to federal Census Bureau data, in the most recent census, people who identify as more than one race rose by 276%! Scientists are only just beginning to hypothesize the reasons for this increase, but three potential factors, NPR reported, have emerged:

  • More children are being born to parents who identify with racial groups that are different from one another.
  • In 2017, the federal government made minor changes to how the census asked questions about race and in how those answers were categorized.
  • People are reconsidering what they want the government to know about their identities, according to Duke University Press.

The increased incidence of DNA testing for cultural heritage may be an additional factor in the different ways people identified themselves during the census, driving its popularity, NPR noted. More people are purchasing at-home DNA tests to learn where their ancestors lived and came from, and their family’s genealogy.

“Exactly how big of an effect these tests had on census results is difficult to pin down,” NPR reported. “But many researchers agree that as the cost of at-home kits fell in recent years, they have helped shape an increasing share of the country’s ever-changing ideas about the social construct that is race.”

How the Census Alters Government Policy

Pew Research noted that, although only about 16% of Americans have taken an ancestry DNA test, the marketing efforts of “companies such as 23andMe and Ancestry.com, which operates the AncestryDNA service, should not be underestimated,” NPR reported.  They have a wide reach, and those efforts could be impacting how people think about race and ethnic identity.

For most of human history, social experience and contemporary family history have been the drivers of how people identified themselves. However, low-cost DTC genetic testing may be changing that.

Jenifer Bratter, PhD

“The public has kind of taken in the notion that you can find out ‘who you are’ with a test that’s supposed to analyze your genes,” Jenifer Bratter, PhD (above), a Professor of Sociology at Rice University who studies multiracial identity, told NPR. “What that does for anyone who does work in racial identity and racial demography is cause us to think through how genetic ideas of race are in public circulation.” Desire by healthcare consumers to know their risk for chronic disease has already driven a marked increase in demand for low-cost DNA testing, which has also affected the types of test orders clinical laboratory are receiving from doctors. (Photo copyright: Rice University.)

One concern that sociologists and demographers have about this trend is that the US census is an important tool in policy, civil rights protections, and even how researchers measure things like healthcare access disparities.

“You’re going to have a lot more people who are not part of marginalized groups in terms of their social experiences claiming to be part of marginalized groups. When it comes to understanding discrimination or inequality, we’re going have very inaccurate estimates,” says Wendy Roth, PhD, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, told NPR.

Cherry-picking One’s Racial Identity

In “Genetic Options: The Impact of Genetic Ancestry Testing on Consumers’ Racial and Ethnic Identities,” published in the American Journal of Sociology, Roth and her fellow researchers theorized that DTC at-home DNA test-takers do not accept the results fully, but rather choose based on their identity aspirations and social appraisals.

They developed the “genetic options” theory, “to account for how genetic ancestry tests influence consumers’ ethnic and racial identities.” They wrote, “The rapid growth of genetic ancestry testing has brought concerns that these tests will transform consumers’ racial and ethnic identities, producing “geneticized” identities determined by genetic knowledge.”

However, a more healthcare-related motivation for taking a DTC DNA test is to learn about one’s potential risks for familial chronic health conditions, such as cancer, heart disease, and diabetes, etc.

In “With Consumer Demand for Ancestry and Genealogy Genetic Tests Waning, Leading Genomics Companies are Investigating Ways to Commercialize the Aggregated Genetics Data They Have Collected,” Dark Daily noted that, faced with lagging sales and employee layoffs, genomics companies in the genealogy DNA testing market are shifting their focus to the healthcare aspects of the consumer genomics data they have already compiled and aggregated.

According to Joe Grzymski, PhD, Chief Scientific Officer at Renown Health and Associate Research Professor of Computational Biology at Desert Research Institute, a research campus of the University of Nevada Reno, the consumer market is going to become more integrated into the healthcare experience.

“Whether that occurs through your primary care doctor, your large integrated health network, or your payor, I think there will be profound changes in society’s tolerance for using genetics for prevention,” he told GenomeWeb.

Regardless, as Dark Daily reported in 2020, sales of genetic tests from Ancestry and 23andMe show the market is cooling. Thus, with less than 20% of the population having taken DNA tests, and with sales slowing, genetics testing may not affect responses on the next US census, which is scheduled for April 1, 2030.

In the meantime, clinical laboratory managers should recognize how and why more consumers are interested in ordering their own medical laboratory tests and incorporate this trend into their lab’s strategic planning.

—Dava Stewart

Related Information:

The Census Has Revealed a More Multiracial US. One Reason? Cheaper DNA Tests

Percentage of Population and Percent Change by Race: 2010 and 2020

Revisions to the Standards for the Classification of Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity

America’s Churning Races: Race and Ethnicity Response Changes Between Census 2000 and the 2010 Census

About Half of Americans Are OK with DNA Testing Companies Sharing User Data with Law Enforcement

Genetic Options: The Impact of Genetic Ancestry Testing on Consumers’ Racial and Ethnic Identities

With Consumer Demand for Ancestry and Genealogy Genetic Tests Waning, Leading Genomics Companies Are Investigating Ways to Commercialize the Aggregated Genetics Data They Have Collected

Consumer Reports Identifies ‘Potential Pitfalls’ of Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Tests

Popularity of Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Tests Still Growing, Regardless of Concerns from Provider and Privacy Organizations

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