End of social distancing, masking, and other COVID-19 pandemic mitigations may lead to more severe flu-like infections in northern hemisphere, experts say
Clinical laboratory professionals in the United States and Canada should prepare now for a severe flu season. That is according to infectious disease experts at Johns Hopkin’s Center for Health Security who predict the rise in influenza (flu) cases in Australia signals what will likely be higher than normal numbers of flu-like infections starting this fall in the Northern Hemisphere.
As a Southern Hemisphere nation, Australia experiences winter from June through August. The land down under just concluded its worst flu season in five years. The flu arrived earlier than usual and was severe. Surveillance reports from the Aussie government’s Department of Health and Aged Care noted that influenza-like illness (ILI) peaked in May and June, but that starting in mid-April 2022 the weekly number of flu cases exceeded the five-year average.
If the same increase in flu cases happens here, healthcare systems and clinical laboratories already burdened with continuing COVID-19 testing and increasing demand for monkeypox testing could find the strain unbearable.
Amesh Adalja, MD (above), Infectious Disease Expert and Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkin’s Center for Health Security, told Prevention that Australia’s flu season is typically a harbinger of what will follow in the US, Canada, and other Northern Hemisphere countries. “The planet has two hemispheres which have opposite respiratory viral seasons,” he said. “Therefore, Australia’s flu season—which is just ending—is often predictive of what will happen in the Northern Hemisphere.” Clinical laboratories in the United States should review their preparations as North America enters its influenza season. (Photo copyright: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.)
Consequences of Decline in Flu Vaccinations and Social Distancing, Masks
The New York Times noted that in 2017, when Australia suffered through its worst flu season since modern surveillance techniques were adopted, the US experienced a deadly 2017-2018 flu season a half-year later that took an estimated 79,000 lives.
While the number of flu cases in this country is currently low, according to the weekly US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) “Flu View,” that is expected to change as temperatures cool.
During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, influenza was nearly nonexistent. Pandemic-mitigation efforts such as masking, social distancing, and quarantining slowed the spread of the annual respiratory illness. But pandemic mitigation efforts are no longer the norm.
“Many have stopped masking,” said Abinash Virk MD, an Infectious Diseases Specialist at Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, in a Mayo Clinic news blog that urged patients to get vaccinated for flu. “For the large part, we will see the re-emergence of influenza in the winter. In comparison, in 2020 winter … there was literally no influenza. But now that has all changed.”
Diminished Immunity Will Lead to More Severe Flu Cases
A CDC report published in July also noted that last winter’s flu season broke from the traditional pattern of arrival of the flu in the fall followed by a peak in cases in February.
During the 2021-22 season, influenza activity began to increase in November and remained elevated until mid-June. It featured two distinct waves, with A(H3N2) viruses predominating for the entire season. But the overall case counts were the lowest in at least 25 years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic.
Thomas Russo, MD, Professor and Chief of Infectious Disease at the University at Buffalo in New York, said the past two mild flu seasons could set the stage for a difficult year in 2022-23.
“Immunity to respiratory viruses, including the flu, wanes over time,” Russo told Prevention. “People have not seen the virus naturally for a couple of years and many individuals don’t get the flu vaccine.” That, he says, raises the risk that people who are unvaccinated against the flu will develop more severe cases if they do happen to get infected.
“People are interacting closely again and there are very few mandates,” he added. “That’s a set-up for increased transmission of influenza and other respiratory viruses.”
“The Southern Hemisphere has had a pretty bad flu season, and it came on early,” Fauci, told Bloomberg in late August. “Influenza, as we all have experienced over many years, can be a serious disease, particularly when you have a bad season.”
CNN reported that US government modeling predicts flu will peak this year in early December.
CDC Advises Public to Get Flu Vaccine
Because COVID-19 and Influenza have many symptoms in common, such as fever, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, sore throat, runny nose, headache, and muscle aches, the Mayo Clinic points out on its blog that testing is the only way to discern between the two when symptoms overlap.
According to the CDC, the best way to reduce risk from seasonal flu and its potentially serious complications is to get vaccinated every year. The best time to get vaccinated for the flu is in September and October before the flu starts spreading in communities, the CDC states. However, vaccination after October can still provide protection during the peak of flu season.
Yet, many people fail to get the flu vaccine even though it is recommended for everyone over the age of six months. CNN reported that just 45% of Americans got their flu shots last season. Flu vaccination rates fell for several at-risk groups, including pregnant women and children.
Though flu seasons are often unpredictable, clinical laboratories should prepare now for an influx of influenza test specimens and higher case rates than the past two pandemic-lightened flu seasons. Coupled with COVID-19 and monkeypox testing, already strained supply lines may be disrupted.
Though only in early stages, findings could lead to a ‘therapeutic against current and newly-arising variants,’ say researchers
As SARS-CoV-2 changes and mutates, some therapeutic antibodies that were once highly effective in fighting the virus have lost potency. But now, in a proof-of-concept study, researchers from Boston Children’s Hospital have identified one antibody that neutralizes all known variants of the coronavirus, including the omicron variant. Microbiologists and clinical laboratory managers will find this intriguing, as most medical labs perform serology testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
The new antibody appears to be robust. It triggers several other types of antibodies as part of the immune response. If validated by further research, this discovery, the researchers state, may lead to new vaccines, better therapies, and improved treatments for COVID-19.
“We hope that this humanized antibody will prove to be as effective at neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 in patients as it has proven to be thus far in preclinical evaluations,” said geneticist Frederick Alt, PhD, Director of the Program in Cellular and Molecular Medicine at Boston Children’s Hospital and one of the leaders of the research. Clinical laboratories that perform serology testing for COVID-19 will be intrigued by this new line of research. (Photo copyright: PR Newswire.)
SP1-77 Antibody Outperforms All Others at Neutralizing SARS-CoV-2
To conduct their research, the team used genetically modified mice that basically have built-in human immune systems. These mice were originally utilized for seeking out antibodies to HIV, another virus that tends to mutate. Their immune systems can mimic what human immune systems encounter when a viral invader attacks.
The scientists inserted two human gene segments into the mice, which quickly produced antibodies resembling those made by humans. The mice were then exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein from the original coronavirus strain. The scientists found that the mice produced nine different families of antibodies that could bind to the spike protein.
The researchers then tested the effectiveness of those antibodies and found that three of the nine antibody families strongly neutralized the original SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. In addition, one of the antibody families—dubbed SP1-77—was much more powerful and could neutralize the Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and all known Omicron strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
New Monoclonal Antibody Products and Vaccines
If their findings are validated through further research, SP1-77 “would have potential to be a therapeutic against current and newly-arising variants of concern” according to the Science Immunology study. It also could be useful as part of a cocktail containing other antibody treatments for COVID-19 variants.
“SP1-77 binds the spike protein at a site that so far has not been mutated in any variant, and it neutralizes these variants by a novel mechanism,” said Tomas Kirchhausen, PhD, Senior Investigator, Program in Cellular and Molecular Medicine at Boston Children’s Hospital and one of the authors of the study in a statement announcing the study findings. “These properties may contribute to its broad and potent activity,” he added.
“This is very early-stage proof-of-concept work to illustrate that broadly neutralizing antibodies can be generated using a mouse model,” Amesh Adalja, MD, an infectious disease expert and senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Prevention. “Such work, if replicated and expanded, could form the basis of new monoclonal antibody products as well as a vaccine.”
The researchers have applied for a patent for the SP1-77 antibody as well as the mouse model they used to create it. Studies on the antibody are ongoing and have only been performed on mice and not humans. The scientists intend to execute further research on the innovative antibody and hope it will someday be used to help fight the COVID-19 virus and all its variants.
“We’d love to have a vaccine that is active against all circulating variants, including those yet to come,” Thomas Russo, MD, Professor and Chief of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, University at Buffalo told Prevention. “It’s the holy grail of vaccines.”
Microbiologists and clinical laboratories working with monoclonal antibodies to treat for COVID-19 infections will no doubt want to follow the Boston Children’s Hospital research closely as it may lead to new treatments and vaccines.
Data was used to create a transmission map that tracked the spread of infections among school athletes and helped public health officials determine where best to disrupt exposure
Genomic sequencing played a major role in tracking a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a Minnesota school system. Understanding how and where the coronavirus was spreading helped local officials implement restrictions to help keep the public safe. This episode demonstrates how clinical laboratories that can quickly sequence SARS-CoV-2 accurately and at a reasonable cost will give public health officials new tools to manage the COVID-19 pandemic.
Officials in Carver County, Minn., used the power of genomic epidemiology to map the COVID-19 outbreak, and, according to the Star Tribune, revealed how the B.1.1.7 variant of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus was spreading through their community.
“The resulting investigation of the Carver County outbreak produced one of the most detailed maps of COVID-19 transmission in the yearlong history of the pandemic—a chart that looks like a fireworks grand finale with infections producing cascading clusters of more infections,” the Star Tribune reported.
Using genetic sequencing, the Minnesota Department of Health produced the above map of the spread of the COVID-19 through Carver County’s schools. The animated graph includes epidemiological data from “10 high school teams, 10 club teams, 12 teams in a sports association, and three fitness/rec centers.” According to the Star Tribune, “The cluster shows a high ‘attack rate’ of infected people spreading the virus to multiple close contacts. Genomic sequencing found the more infectious B.1.1.7 variant of the virus in about a quarter of cases so far.” Click here to access the interactive version of the map. To see details about specific persons and locations, tap or hover over each dot. (Graphic copyright: Minnesota Department of Health/Star Tribune.)
Private Labs, Academic Labs, Public Health Labs Must Work Together
For gene sequencing to guide policy and decision making as well as it did in Carver County, coordination, cooperation, and standardization among public, private, and academic medical laboratories is required. Additionally, each institution must report the same information in similar formats for it to be the most useful.
“Maintain Policies That Slow Transmission: Variants will continue to emerge as the pandemic unfolds, but the best chance of minimizing their frequency and impact will be to continue public health measures that reduce transmission. This includes mask mandates, social distancing requirements, and limited gatherings.
“Prioritize Contact Tracing and Case Investigation for Data Collection: Cases of variants of concern should be prioritized for contact tracing and case investigation so that public health officials can observe how the new variant behaves compared to previously circulating versions.
“Develop a Genomic Surveillance Strategy: To guide the public health response, maximize resources, and ensure an equitable distribution of benefits, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) should develop a national strategy for genomic surveillance to implement and direct a robust SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance program, drawing on resources and expertise from across the US government.
“Improve Coordination for Genomic Surveillance and Characterization: There are several factors in creating a successful genomic surveillance and characterization network. Clear leadership and coordination will be necessary.”
Practical Application of Genomic Sequencing
Genomic epidemiology uses the genetic sequence of a virus to better understand how and where a given virus is spreading, as well as how it may be mutating. Pathologists understand that this information can be used at multiple levels.
Locally, as was the case in Carver County, Minn., it helps school officials decide whether to halt sports for a time. Nationally, it helps scientists identify “hot spots” and locate mutations of the coronavirus. Using this data, vaccine manufacturers can adjust their vaccines or create boosters as needed.
“This is some of the most amazing epidemiology I’ve ever seen,” epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, PhD, Regents Professor, and Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, told the Star Tribune, which reported that “A public health investigation linked 140 COVID-19 cases among more than 50 locations and groups, mostly schools and sports teams in Carver County. (Photo copyright: University of Minnesota.)
Will Cost Decreases Provide Opportunities for Clinical Laboratories?
Every year since genomic sequencing became available the cost has decreased. Experts expect that trend to continue. However, as of now, the cost may still be a barrier to clinical laboratories that lack financial resources.
“Purchasing laboratory equipment, computer resources, and staff training requires significant up-front investments. However, the cost per sequence is far less today than it was under earlier methods,” the GAO noted. This is good news for public and independent clinical laboratories. Like Carver County, a significant SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the future may be averted thanks to genetic sequencing.
“The first piece of the cluster was spotted in a private K-8 school, which served as an incubator of sorts because its students live in different towns and play on different club teams,” the Star Tribune reported.
Finding such clusters may provide opportunities to halt the outbreak. “We can try to cut it off at the knees or maybe get ahead of it,” epidemiologist Susan Klammer with Minnesota Public Health and for childcare and schools, told the Star Tribune.
This story is a good example of how genomic sequencing and surveillance tracking—along with cooperation between public health agencies and clinical laboratories—are critical elements in slowing and eventually halting the spread of COVID-19.
